Bayesian network analysis of household solar power systems for sustainable rural development in Bali province
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18686/cest769Keywords:
energy sustainability; household level solar power plants; Bayesian networks; rural energy transition; integrated policyAbstract
Ensuring the sustainability of decentralized solar power systems (SPS) remains a key challenge in advancing clean energy transitions in rural areas. This study aims to develop and evaluate sustainability scenarios for household-level SPS using a Bayesian Networks approach, with empirical evidence from Bali Province, Indonesia. The model integrates technical, institutional, economic, and social variables within a probabilistic framework to capture system complexity and uncertainty. The results show that the baseline sustainability level is 55%, indicating a vulnerable condition. Government support, local institutional intervention, and electricity stability are identified as the most influential factors. Scenario analysis reveals that single-policy interventions have limited impact, whereas integrated interventions, particularly those combining institutional strengthening and community participation, can increase sustainability to 65%. Sensitivity analysis further identifies electricity reliability and social capital as critical leverage factors for long-term system viability. This study contributes by introducing a scenario-based probabilistic framework that integrates socio-technical and governance dimensions, offering a novel approach beyond conventional deterministic models. The findings provide actionable insights for designing integrated and adaptive policies to enhance the resilience and sustainability of decentralized solar energy systems in rural contexts.
References
1. Wang G, Sadiq M, Bashir T, et al. The dynamic association between different strategies of renewable energy sources and sustainable economic growth under SDGs. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2022; 42: 100886. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2022.100886
2. Iorember PT. Renewable Energy Expansion and Sustainable Development. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2023; 1–8. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4416903
3. Jäger-Waldau A. Snapshot of Photovoltaics − May 2023. EPJ Photovoltaics. 2023; 14: 23. doi: 10.1051/epjpv/2023016
4. Ullah N, Ahmad A, Sarfaraz R, et al. Challenges and Solutions in Solar Photovoltaic Technology Life Cycle. ChemBioEng Reviews. 2023; 10(4): 541–584. doi: 10.1002/cben.202300002
5. Krasniqi N, Ymeri A. Electricity production from solar Energy in Kosovo and Environmental Impacts. IFAC-PapersOnLine. 2022; 55(39): 302–307. doi: 10.1016/j.ifacol.2022.12.039
6. Lakhouit A, Alhathlaul N, El Mokhi C, et al. Assessing the Environmental Impact of PV Emissions and Sustainability Challenges. Sustainability. 2025; 17(7): 2842. doi: 10.3390/su17072842
7. Zhang H, Yu Z, Zhu C, et al. Green or not? Environmental challenges from photovoltaic technology. Environmental Pollution. 2023; 320: 121066. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121066
8. Hamed TA, Alshare A. Environmental Impact of Solar and Wind energy- A Review. Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems. 2022; 10(2): 1–23. doi: 10.13044/j.sdewes.d9.0387
9. Gupta N, Sahni R, Kumar A. Impact of solar energy on sustainable development: An overview. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Circular Economy and Sustainable Development (ICCESD-2024); 27–28 June 2024; Mohali, India. doi: 10.1063/5.0258630
10. Bulut U. The economics of solar energy. In: Menegaki A (editor). Elgar Encyclopedia of Energy Economics. Edward Elgar Publishing; 2025. pp. 444–445. doi: 10.4337/9781035310371.000122
11. Lin B, Li J. Does connectivity power solar energy? Evidence from the belt and road initiative. Energy. 2026; 344: 139842. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139842
12. Mârza C, Moldovan R, Corsiuc G, et al. Improving the Energy Performance of a Household Using Solar Energy: A Case Study. Energies. 2023; 16(18): 6423. doi: 10.3390/en16186423
13. González-Morán C, Arboleya P, Pilli V. Photovoltaic self consumption analysis in a European low voltage feeder. Electric Power Systems Research. 2021; 194: 107087. doi: 10.1016/j.epsr.2021.107087
14. Ulagammai M, Hemalatha R, John De BC, et al. Intelligent Residential Energy Control with Demand Response Incorporating Renewable Power Sources and Electric Vehicle Integration. In: Power Energy and Secure Smart Technologies. CRC Press; 2025. pp. 304–308. doi: 10.1201/9781003661917-41
15. Ahmed SI, Salehfar H, Ranganathan P, et al. Machine Learning-Based Classification of Residential Solar PV Adoption Trends. In: Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE Conference on Technologies for Sustainability (SusTech); 20–23 April 2025; Los Angeles, CA, USA. pp. 1–8. doi: 10.1109/SusTech63138.2025.11025779
16. Farooqi MR, Rahman A, Ahmad MF, et al. Energy Development as a Driver of Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Nations. In: Singh P, Singh S, Kumar G, et al. (editors). Energy: Crises, Challenges and Solutions. Wiley; 2022. pp. 91–107. doi: 10.1002/9781119741503.ch5
17. McKenzie P, Gawley D. Evaluating the potential of solar PV to reduce energy costs in fuel poor households. Renewable Energy. 2026; 256: 124487. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124487
18. Rachmawatie D. Community Empowerment in the Development of Hybrid Renewable Electricity for Rural Community Development (Case Study: Pantai Baru Yogyakarta) [PhD Thesis]. IPB University; 2019. Available online: https://www.academia.edu/87088456/Pemberdayaan_Masyarakat_dalam_Pengembangan_Energi_Listrik_Hibrid_Terbarukan_bagi_Pembangunan_Masyarakat_Desa_Studi_Kasus_Pantai_Baru_Yogyakarta_ (in Indonesian)
19. Wirawan H, Gultom YML. The effects of renewable energy-based village grid electrification on poverty reduction in remote areas: The case of Indonesia. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2021; 62: 186–194. doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2021.04.006
20. Nainggolan AA, Ralvi A, Tanjung AFE, et al. Utilization of Residential Rooftop Solar Panels in Reducing Dependence on Conventional Electricity in Surabaya City. Jurnal Minfo Polgan. 2025; 14(1): 817–825. doi: 10.33395/jmp.v14i1.14913 (in Indonesian)
21. Huang J, Li W, Guo L, et al. Renewable energy and household economy in rural China. Renewable Energy. 2020; 155: 669–676. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.03.151
22. Rachmawatie D, Rustiadi E, Fauzi A, et al. Driving Factors of Community Empowerment and Development Through Renewable Energy for Electricity in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2020; 11(1): 326–332. doi: 10.32479/ijeep.10533
23. Verma J, Sharma R, Singh AK, et al. Performance Analysis of Grid connected Household with Solar PV and Battery. In: Proceedings of the 2025 7th International Conference on Energy, Power and Environment (ICEPE); 9–11 May 2025; Sohra, India. pp. 1–6. doi: 10.1109/ICEPE65965.2025.11139666
24. Setiartiti L, Mubarrok W. Bantul’s renewable energy potential: mapping the path to successful electricity transition. E3S Web of Conferences. 2024; 508: 02008. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202450802008
25. Syahputra R, Soesanti I. Renewable energy systems based on micro-hydro and solar photovoltaic for rural areas: A case study in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Energy Reports. 2021; 7: 472–490. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2021.01.015
26. Pachman AF, Didane DH, Wijianto, et al. A Study of Global Solar Radiations Measurement in Java Island, Indonesia. Evergreen. 2023; 10(1): 212–218. doi: 10.5109/6781071
27. Silalahi DF, Blakers A, Stocks M, et al. Indonesia’s Vast Solar Energy Potential. Energies. 2021; 14(17): 5424. doi: 10.3390/en14175424
28. Windarta J, Denis, Firmansyah A, et al. Technical study of 1.2 KWP solar plant on Tanbihul Ghofilin Islamic Boarding School Banjarnegara. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2022; 969(1): 012031. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/969/1/012031
29. Prasetyo RB, Rahman H, Alfi I, et al. Artificial Neural Network Performance Analysis for Solar Radiation Prediction, Case Study at Baron Techno Park. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2022; 997(1): 012019. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/997/1/012019
30. Nurhanifah NV, Rachmawatie D. Sustainability Strategy for Solar Power Plant: Integrating Sustainable Development and Rural Environment. Jurnal Presipitasi : Media Komunikasi dan Pengembangan Teknik Lingkungan. 2025; 22(1): 314–329. doi: 10.14710/presipitasi.v22i1.314-329
31. Chakraborty S, Mengersen K, Fidge C, et al. A Bayesian Network-based customer satisfaction model: a tool for management decisions in railway transport. Decision Analytics. 2016; 3(1): 4. doi: 10.1186/s40165-016-0021-2
32. Cain J. Planning Improvements in Natural Resources Management: Guidelines for Using Bayesian Networks to Support the Planning and Management of Development Programmes in the Water Sector and Beyond. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; 2001. Available online: https://www.ircwash.org/resources/planning-improvements-natural-resources-management-guidelines-using-bayesian-networks
33. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Southeast Asia. IRNEA; 2018. Available online: https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Jan/IRENA_Market_Southeast_Asia_2018.pdf
34. IEA Report Shows Falling Global Investment in Energy, Record Spending on Solar. Available online: https://sdg.iisd.org/news/iea-report-shows-falling-global-investment-in-energy-record-spending-on-solar/ (accessed on 16 August 2025).
35. Painuly JP. Barriers to renewable energy penetration; a framework for analysis. Renewable Energy. 2001; 24(1): 73–89. doi: 10.1016/S0960-1481(00)00186-5
36. Yang X, Khan H, Khan I, et al. Assessing the Impact Mechanism of Renewable Energy Technology Innovation on Industrial Green Transformation in China. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 2024; 16(3): 13098–13120. doi: 10.1007/s13132-024-02332-x
37. Lovering J, Swain M, Blomqvist L, et al. Land-use intensity of electricity production and tomorrow’s energy landscape. PLoS One. 2022; 17(7): e0270155. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270155
38. García-Lillo F, Sánchez-García E, Marco-Lajara B, et al. Renewable Energies and Sustainable Development: A Bibliometric Overview. Energies. 2023; 16(3): 1211. doi: 10.3390/en16031211
39. Firdiansyah, Putra AE, Rusdianasari. Study on the Utilization of Solar Power Plants (PLTS) as an Effort to Increase Electricity Access in Rural and Remote Areas. International Journal of Research in Vocational Studies (IJRVOCAS). 2025; 5(1): 31–43. doi: 10.53893/ijrvocas.v5i1.352
40. Rachmawatie D, Rustiadi E, Fauzi A, et al. Lesson learned: the model and policy strategy for developing sustainable renewable energy for agricultural communities. E3S Web of Conferences. 2021; 232: 01025. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202123201025
41. Afifi FAR, Halimatussadiah A, Kurniawan R, et al. Household preferences for rooftop solar photovoltaic systems: Evidence from a survey-based study in five Indonesian cities. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2025; 88: 101771. doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101771
42. Kencono DS, Nadia WRB. Sentiment analysis on the use of renewable energy solar power as an alternative energy source (A study on online media in East Kalimantan Province). In: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Information Technology, Advanced Mechanical and Electrical Engineering; 7–8 August 2024; Yogyakarta, Indonesia. doi: 10.1063/5.0286214
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Dessy Rachmawatie, Akhmad Fauzi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
.jpg)
.jpg)
